2026 Farmers Insurance Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions

The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open tee-off at historic Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California, has quickly become one of the most intriguing betting events early in the PGA Tour season. With a strong field on hand and plenty of storylines for bettors, including the return of a major star and a slightly unusual leaderboard landscape there’s value across the board at all price points. 

Key Storylines Heading Into the Event

• World-class absences and opportunities — World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week, which opens up the outright betting market and improves odds for several top contenders. 
• Brooks Koepka’s comeback — A major talking point for bettors is Brooks Koepka, who returns to a regular PGA Tour event for the first time since 2022. Though a long shot in most markets, his presence adds intrigue. 

Outright Contenders to Bet On

Here’s how the odds board looks from major sportsbooks, and which golfers are drawing the sharpest betting interest: 

Top Favorites

• Xander Schauffele – A San Diego native and strong all-around player, he’s currently at or near the top of many books as the betting favorite. 
• Ludvig Åberg – Consistently near the top of newer PGA fields and an attractive contender this week. 
• Patrick Cantlay & Cameron Young – Both are beatingboards staples with solid odds and good recent form. 
• Hideki Matsuyama & Si Woo Kim – Established winners with course experience, they’re popular value plays in the +2500 to +3000 range. 

Longshot and Value Plays

• Brooks Koepka – Listed around +5500 to +6000, his return makes for a compelling longshot pick if you’re chasing a big payout. 
• Nicolai Højgaard & Jake Knapp – Both have odds in the +5000/+6000 range and could surprise with a strong week. 
• Other sleepers — Aldrich Potgieter (+10000) and Eric Cole (+10000) are among the extreme longshots, based on their current pricing at select sportsbooks. 

Expert Betting Picks & Strategy

Betting guides and handicappers are emphasizing a mix of favorites and high-value bets this week:

• Balanced outright cards — Many experts like combining Schauffele, Åberg and Cantlay as core plays while sprinkling in value golfers like Højgaard or Matsuyama for extra upside. 
• Prop bets & matchups — Expect a number of prop markets (top 10/top 20, matchup wagers) to be popular. For instance, some models project J.J. Spaun +550 to finish top-5 and Si Woo Kim +290 for a top-10. 
• One-and-done strategy — Many bettors use tools that suggest the “safe floor” picks (solid players with course history) while also targeting longshots for big payouts. 

Course & Conditions Matter

Torrey Pines is a challenging test of ball-striking and patience. Unlike some earlier “birdie-fest” stops on tour, scoring here is tougher, with penal rough and coastal winds often imposing discipline on the field. This makes experience and mental toughness valuable traits when evaluating betting cards. 

Source: USA Today

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